Fun with Numbers: Gall’s Mixed Message regarding Variance Calculations

Recently, the idea of self-negating prophecies has gained traction as a public choice problem. It might now be situated in behavioral economics as much as in sociology and psychology. In capital markets, small investors might be dissuaded from taking optimal precautions simply because it is difficult to evaluate risks. An investment manager is nonetheless rewarded for producing high rates of return and is often abandoned when underperforming other professional investors. Things are different for a recognized oracle with significant influence on the market. This Essay explores the phenomenon of self-negating prophecies in the business world and evaluates the likelihood that predictions by this oracle can be self-negating rather than self-fulfilling.

Each year, more than half of criminal defendants subject to the career offender sentencing enhancement are those with prior drug convictions. Because the goal of the Sentencing Guidelines is to “inject transparency, consistency, and fairness” into federal sentencing, clarity on how courts should assess decriminalized drug offenses as § 4B1.1 predicates is needed to restore uniformity to the system and satisfy the Guidelines’ original goals. This Essay calls upon the Sentencing Commission to clarify its intent, place time limits on decriminalized drug predicates for § 4B1.1, and restore greater uniformity to the system.

Each year, more than half of criminal defendants subject to the career offender sentencing enhancement are those with prior drug convictions. Because the goal of the Sentencing Guidelines is to “inject transparency, consistency, and fairness” into federal sentencing, clarity on how courts should assess decriminalized drug offenses as § 4B1.1 predicates is needed to restore uniformity to the system and satisfy the Guidelines’ original goals. This Essay calls upon the Sentencing Commission to clarify its intent, place time limits on decriminalized drug predicates for § 4B1.1, and restore greater uniformity to the system.