For years, academic experts have championed the widespread adoption of the “Fama-French” factors in legal settings. Factor models are commonly used to perform valuations, performance evaluation and event studies across a wide variety of contexts, many of which rely on data provided by Professor Kenneth French. Yet these data are beset by a problem that the experts themselves did not understand: In a companion article, we document widespread retroactive changes to French’s factor data. These changes are the result of discretionary changes to the construction of the factors and materially affect a broad range of estimates. In this Article, we show how these retroactive changes can have enormous impacts in precisely the settings in which experts have pressed for their use. We provide examples of valuations, performance analysis, and event studies in which the retroactive changes have a large—and even dispositive—effect on an expert’s conclusions.
Securities Law
The market for Treasury securities, a deep and liquid market for risk-free debt, has anchored an ambitious and creative U.S. dollar economy while also ensuring the safety and soundness of its financial and monetary system. But as the market has grown, a series of disruptions to Treasury market trading have prompted policymakers to explore measures to strengthen the market’s foundations and shore up its resilience. This Essay considers this regulatory response. It focuses on the introduction of mandatory central clearing for most trades in U.S. Treasuries—a proposal seeking to significantly reshape the day-to-day functioning of the Treasury market. Central clearing is a well-established means by which to reduce the risk of loss associated when trading parties default. We analyze this mandate, detailing its likely advantages as well as its potential trade-offs from a public policy perspective.
This Essay compares a judicial revolution that is happening to one that is not. Both the change and the status quo are being managed by the current Supreme Court. That Court has, when it comes to administrative law, shown a capacity to revisit everything. But when it comes to securities regulation, it has resisted change. What is the explanation for this divergent approach between general regulation, which the Court has sought to police, and securities regulation, which the Court has left alone? Some scholars have argued that the Supreme Court is simply uninterested in securities regulation, but the Court now hears proportionately more securities cases than it once did. Others dispute the premise that the Court supports corporate America. And, of course, the Roberts Court could change its approach to securities regulation in time. But I think the divergence suggests that the Court wants to police public rights and rights against the state but is less interested in reformulating the standards for private disputes, such as disputes between shareholders and managers.
This Essay argues that the increasing prevalence and sophistication of artificial intelligence (AI) will push securities regulation toward a more systems-oriented approach. This approach will replace securities law’s emphasis, in areas like manipulation, on forms of enforcement targeted at specific individuals and accompanied by punitive sanctions with a greater focus on ex ante rules designed to shape an ecology of actors and information.
This case raises some difficult theoretical questions about what harms insider trading laws are supposed to prevent and what benefits they are supposed to provide to the marketplace.
Many scholars have proposed market-based solutions to the well-known shortcomings of modern securities law.